Skip to content
Earliestown Earliestown Vol. VII · Issue 14
Earliestown Research · Annual Publication Edition V · 2025

The State of Earliness, 2025.

Nine months before a trend is a trend — the year's most important early signals, reviewed by named senior analysts and backtested against seven years of mainstream measurement.

Read the report Browse the archive →
Edited by Mira Okafor & Daniel Chen · Earliestown, Inc., Brooklyn, NY · Published October 14, 2025
A stack of printed research reports resting on a wooden desk beside a brass lamp, lit by low afternoon window light.
Five years of the State of Earliness report, photographed in the Earliestown studio before distribution.
From the editors

What we mean when we say a signal is early.

Five editions in, we have learned that “early” is not a marketing word. It is an arithmetic word. A signal is early when it shows up in our panel months before it shows up in mainstream measurement, when the velocity curve bends up while everyone else is still arguing about whether it exists, and when the contrarian case against it is something we have already published alongside our forecast.

The 2025 edition is the largest we have produced. It contains forty-two named signals across seven categories — from the return of unfussy domestic craft to the quiet collapse of the mid-tier sneaker — each rated on the Earliness Index, each annotated with confidence intervals, and each cross-checked against our seven-year backtest against Nielsen and IRI baselines. The theme this year is uncomfortable: the lead time between early signal and mainstream consensus has compressed, not expanded. Brands that wait for the third quarter of a trend to respond are, in many categories, already too late.

We have written it for the people who have to act on it: heads of strategy, insight, and innovation at large consumer brands, and the agency partners who brief them. If you read it and find yourself disagreeing with a call, write to us. We publish the counter-evidence in the next edition.

— Mira Okafor & Daniel Chen, Co-founders, Earliestown, Inc.

The Archive

Five years of early signals, open access.

Every edition of the State of Earliness report is published in full and remains free to download. Returning readers can jump straight to a prior year; first-time readers can trace how each call resolved against the mainstream record.

  1. Cover of the 2025 edition, a deep navy field with a single thin orange rule across the upper third.
    2025 · Edition V

    The Compression of Lead Time.

    Forty-two signals across seven categories, with an uncomfortable thesis: the gap between early signal and mainstream consensus is shrinking. Includes the first public release of the Earliness Index scoring methodology.

    • The return of unfussy domestic craft
    • The quiet collapse of the mid-tier sneaker
    • Functional beverage segmentation past the third wave
    • Community-led product launches outpacing brand-led ones
    Download the 2025 edition → PDF · 184 pages · 38 MB
  2. Cover of the 2024 edition, a deep forest green field with a single thin pale rule across the upper third.
    2024 · Edition IV

    After the Hype.

    A retrospective on the post-pandemic consumer and the first wave of AI-native brand behavior. Featured the now-cited forecast that functional hydration would split into four subcategories — confirmed by Nielsen nine months later.

    Download the 2024 edition → PDF · 162 pages · 34 MB
  3. Cover of the 2023 edition, a warm bone field with a single thin ink rule across the upper third.
    2023 · Edition III

    Quiet Consumption.

    The year of the under-celebrated brand, the under-marketed drop, and the loud-silent luxury consumer. Introduced the proprietary Earliness Index rating system, validated against the prior two editions.

    Download the 2023 edition → PDF · 148 pages · 31 MB
  4. Cover of the 2021 edition, a deep ink black field with a single thin warm rule across the upper third.
    2021 · Edition I

    The First Edition.

    The inaugural issue. Twelve signals, hand-picked by Mira Okafor from the first 4,000-member panel. Out of print physically; the digital edition is now the canonical reference for the founding methodology.

    Download the 2021 edition → PDF · 96 pages · 22 MB

Editions II (2022) and the 2022 update note are available on request — write to [email protected].

The brands that win the next cycle will not be the ones that react fastest to the trend. They will be the ones that were already shipping against it while it was still a rumor in four Discord servers.
Mira Okafor · Co-founder & Lead Trend Analyst, Earliestown · From the 2025 edition introduction
The Track Record

Seven years of forecasts, audited.

The State of Earliness is not a marketing publication. It is an audited research record. The numbers below come from the 2025 edition's methodology appendix and are reproduced, in full, from the backtest against Nielsen and IRI.

  1. 9.4 months Median lead time against mainstream measurement, across 7 years of forecasts
  2. 81 % Directional accuracy at the 6-month horizon, backtested 2017–2024 against Nielsen and IRI
  3. 83 % Gartner Hype Cycle hit rate of consumer trends that landed between 2021 and 2024, preceded by an Earliestown forecast
  4. 412 enterprise teams Using the platform across 23 countries, including PepsiCo, Unilever, Nike, and L’Oréal
The Working Session

Read the report. Then talk to the analyst behind it.

Thirty minutes with one of our senior analysts — Mira, Daniel, or a member of the 19-person senior team — to walk through the 2025 signals that apply to your category and pressure-test them against your current planning horizon.

  • Direct access to a named senior analyst, not a sales contact
  • The 2025 edition in print, shipped before the call
  • A short read-out memo emailed within 48 hours
Book a Trend Briefing Read the methodology →

Briefing slots are limited to four per analyst per week. Earliestown briefings are conducted under NDA for qualified brand and agency teams.